Random Market News, 15 September 2017
"S&P 500 Tops 2,500, as Dollar Slips on Retail Data: Markets Wrap.
U.S. stocks capped the best week since January, with the S&P 500 Index climbing above 2,500 for the first time, as investors showed resilience in the face of a North Korean missile test. The dollar weakened after an unexpected decline in August retail sales raised concern over the economy’s strength."
"Prosecutor General Accuses President Temer of Leading a Criminal Organization.
The Prosecutor General of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, charged president Michel Temer with obstruction of justice and criminal organization, on Tuesday (14).
Six other members of the president's party (PMDB) and informers Joesley Batista, owner of JBS, and Ricardo Saud, executive of the group, also face charges.
According to the PGR (Prosecutor General's Office), Temer approved JBS' hush money pay-offs to Cunha and financial broker Lúcio Funaro, both currently in jail.
In order for the charges against Temer to become a criminal proceeding, authorization from two-thirds of the lower house of Congress is required.
If authorized, the accusations may be analyzed by the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Only then, if received by the STF, Temer will become a defendant and will be removed from office for up to 180 days during the proceeding. If found guilty, the president loses office."
"French cabinet names high commissioner for pension reform.
The French government has got the ball rolling on its pledge to reform the country’s pension system with the appointment of Jean-Paul Delevoye, a former minister, to the newly created post of high commissioner for pension reform.
The high commissioner position is attached to the solidarity and health ministry, which is led by Agnès Buzyn. It was legally created via a decree published earlier this week, with the cabinet approving Delevoye’s appointment yesterday.
He will be responsible for organising consultations with the main pension stakeholders, co-ordinating preparations for reform with ministers, drafting legislative and regulatory texts, and monitoring their implementation.
Pension spending in France amounts to 14.3% of GDP, one of the highest rates among OECD countries, according to the inter-governmental organisation."
"Funds-of-Funds Most Likely to Receive Preferential Hedge Fund Terms.
Law firm Seward & Kissel’s study of side letter agreements found more than half of these arrangements were with funds-of-funds.
Additionally, the survey found that the majority of side-letter agreements were made with funds of funds, which made up 56 percent of side letter investors — up from just 30.5 percent last year.
Almost half of the side letters in the study included fee discounts, while another 47 percent had some form of “most favored nations” protection — a clause promising the client is receiving the best terms offered by the hedge fund.
Roughly a quarter of side letters featured transparency and reporting requirements, while 11.4 percent included preferred liquidity terms."
"CME Group to exit OTC credit default swap clearing business.
CME Group Inc, the world’s largest futures market operator, said on Thursday it will exit its over-the-counter credit default swap (CDS) clearing business by mid-2018.
The company said it would dissolve the CDS guarantee fund following the exit, freeing $650 million to CDS clearing members."
"Weather and geopolitical worries (continued).
Neither the Bank of England nor the Swiss National Bank altered their respective monetary policies. Data from China disappointed, missing expectations for a stronger expansion. Australia's labour force continues to exhibit strong growth. Japan's core machine orders (excluding volatile ones) continue to gyrate from month to month. The data are a proxy for capital spending.
The Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve hold policy meetings this coming week. The BoJ is expected to leave its policy unchanged. However, for the Federal Reserve, expectations are uncertain. Economic data are beginning to show the negative effects of Hurricane Harvey while Hurricane Irma will be reflected in data that will not be released until October. This will cloud the outlook for the Fed. Exacerbating the problem for the Fed is the delay in the collection and publication of official data. About 2,000,000 are estimated to still be out of power in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. This makes data gathering difficult. Expectations are for revisions going forward."
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventarticle.asp?fid=483017&cust=mam&year=2017&lid=0#top
Data dump.
VIX ~10.17. 10-yr treasury volatility (TYVIX) ~3.78.
http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/volatility-on-interest-rates
~8% drop in TYVIX today, despite recent events.
MEETING DATE |
0-25 |
25-50 |
50-75 |
75-100 |
100-125 |
125-150 |
150-175 |
175-200 |
200-225 |
225-250 |
250-275 |
275-300 |
300-325 |
325-350 |
350-375 |
375-400 |
400-425 |
425-450 |
450-475 |
475-500 |
500-525 |
9/20/2017 |
0.0% |
1.4% |
98.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||||||||||||||
11/1/2017 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.3% |
94.7% |
3.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||||||||||
12/13/2017 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
41.6% |
55.6% |
2.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||||||||
1/31/2018 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
40.8% |
55.3% |
3.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||||||
3/21/2018 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
31.7% |
52.0% |
15.0% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||||
5/2/2018 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
31.1% |
51.6% |
15.8% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||
6/13/2018 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
22.6% |
45.9% |
25.6% |
5.1% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||
8/1/2018 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
22.2% |
45.5% |
26.1% |
5.5% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
10yr Sovereigns.
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/government-bond-spreads
https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds
FX.
https://www.investing.com/currencies/streaming-forex-rates-majors
https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies
Equity.
https://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices
https://tradingeconomics.com/stocks
Commodities.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
News feed.
https://tradingeconomics.com/stream
http://www.marketwatch.com/newsviewer#
https://global.handelsblatt.com/
"Maersk adds to container database in latest digital push.
Online database allows users to search for container weights and sizes with status and recovery alerts to be added in future.
Maersk Line has joined the BIC BoxTech database, uploading the technical specifications of its entire fleet of containers, as it continues to push ahead with its digitalisation strategy."
"Malware spreading fast through the merchant fleet.
A survey of 2,500 seafarers has revealed that 40% of officers have sailed on a vessel, which has become infected with a computer virus or malware. The ongoing crew connectivity survey, carried out by British firm Futurenautics, also found that 87% of those surveyed have had no cyber security training."
http://splash247.com/malware-spreading-fast-merchant-fleet/
"Trends Shaping The Genomics Revolution.
In 2003, the Human Genome Project was completed after fully sequencing and mapping the genetic code of a human being. While that project cost $3B, the cost to sequence a genome has fallen precipitously, to approximately ~$1000 today. This has caused a dramatic shift in the field of genomics as new business models emerge, technologies develop, startups launch, and genomic data grows."
https://www.cbinsights.com/research/trends-shaping-the-genomics-revolution/
"With Death Of Retail Looming, Mall Owners Look To Private Markets.
In the face of an existential threat from e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Walmart’s Jet.com, mall owners and real estate investment trusts with a core retail focus have explored private market investments in retail technology, e-commerce companies, and direct-to-consumer brands as a way of strengthening their core strategic business position."
https://www.cbinsights.com/research/retail-death-mall-owners-startup-investment/
"Corporate venture in Brazil gains steam as giants amp up startup investments.
According to LAVCA’s 2017 Latin American Startup Directory, of the 144 early-stage tech companies that received $1 million-plus in funding over at least two rounds and are still operating in Brazil, approximately one-sixth of them secured corporate venture capital (CVC) funding."
"Why Dropbox decided to drop AWS and build its own infrastructure and network.
Whether the cost of ownership went down in real terms, the company believes it achieved its objectives by building it themselves. “While cost is always something that we consider, our goal with our network expansion was to improve performance, reliability, flexibility and control for our users — which we have succeeded in doing,” a company spokesperson told TechCrunch."
"Why we did not evolve to live forever: Unveiling the mystery of why we age.
They have identified that genes belonging to a process called autophagy - one of the cells most critical survival processes - promote health and fitness in young worms but drive the process of ageing later in life."
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2017-09-evolve-unveiling-mystery-age.html
"Biologist Reaches into Electric Eel Tank, Comes Out with Equation to Measure Shocks.
The shock from a young electric eel feels like accidentally touching a horse fence. A big one is more like getting tasered — by nine of those devices at once."
Isn't that what grad students are for?
"Humans No Longer Have Ancient Defense Mechanism Against Viruses.
"We suspect that the AGO2 proteins lost importance when vertebrates started developing a secondary immune system in which antibodies, interferons, and T-cells – rather than Argonaute proteins – fight viruses.”"
"Brain Halves Increase Communication to Compensate for Aging.
The aged brain tends to show more bilateral communication than the young brain.
These results suggest that greater bilaterality in the prefrontal cortex might be the result of the aging brain adapting to the damage endured over the lifespan, in an effort to maintain normal function."
"Cassini Spacecraft Ends Its Historic Exploration of Saturn.
A thrilling epoch in the exploration of our solar system came to a close today, as NASA's Cassini spacecraft made a fateful plunge into the atmosphere of Saturn, ending its 13-year tour of the ringed planet."
"Video Friday: SpaceX Rocket Mishaps, Robot Puppy, and Lean Robotics."
"How Not to Land an
Orbital Rocket Booster"
Startup/SME of the Day.
"Cynora.
CYNORA GmbH is a leader in TADF technology for OLED products. The company’s focus is on high-efficiency blue OLED emitters system which will enable a significant reduction in power consumption of OLED devices."
https://www.cynora.com/en/home/
OLED screen is one reason for iPhone X's price tag.
"Samarkand – Crossroad of Cultures.
The historic town of Samarkand is a crossroad and melting pot of the world's cultures. Founded in the 7th century B.C. as ancient Afrasiab, Samarkand had its most significant development in the Timurid period from the 14th to the 15th centuries. The major monuments include the Registan Mosque and madrasas, Bibi-Khanum Mosque, the Shakhi-Zinda compound and the Gur-Emir ensemble, as well as Ulugh-Beg's Observatory."
http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/603
SG: Merchandise Trade, 8:30
PM ET (9/17)
CN: House Price Index, 9:30 PM ET (9/17)
IT: Merchandise Trade, 4:00 AM ET
EZ: HICP, 5:00 AM ET
US: Housing Market Index, 10:00 AM ET
US: Treasury International Capital, 4:00 PM ET
AU: RBA Meeting Minutes, 9:30 PM ET
AU: Residential Property Prices, 9:30 PM ET
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-globalEconomicCalendar.html
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar (More complete listing, including consensus)
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/geopolitical-calendar-week-sept-11-2017