Random Market News, 4 August
"The Jobs Numbers: Who’s Hiring in America—and Who’s Not.
Below are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month. Additionally, monthly growth rates are shown for the prior year."
Note, Labor Force Participation Rate (25 to 54 y/o) is ~81.5%. Peak participation rate was ~84.5% in April 2000 and GFC-era peak was ~83.4% in October 2008.
"Surface Calm in the S&P 500 Masks a Spate of Blowups.
Consider a version of the S&P 500 that strips out market-value biases -- the “equal-weight S&P,” in which Apple Inc. matters as much as relative pipsqueaks like Garmin Ltd. and Macy’s. Analysts normally like to see the two indexes moving together, a sign the rising market is lifting all boats.
That didn’t happen in the past five days. In fact, the equal-weighted version just posted its biggest weekly drop since May, and its worst week versus the regular S&P 500 all year. The reason: while enough megacap stocks rose to keep the S&P 500 afloat, single-stock blowups were far more common than single-stock rallies."
"U.S. trade deficit narrows as exports hit 2-1/2-year high.
The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap decreased 5.9 percent to $43.6 billion, the lowest level since October 2016. May's trade deficit was revised slightly down to $46.4 billion from the previously reported $46.5 billion."
USD index is down ~9% since December 2016.
"In July, the NMI® registered 53.9 percent, 3.5 percentage points lower than the 57.4 percent registered in June, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 91st consecutive month."
"Second half pace begins.
The second-half economy is out of the blocks in good fashion. The July employment report included a solid monthly gain for wages and was headlined by solid payroll growth that included a jump for manufacturing. Yet, however fast employment may be rising, consumer spending has yet to move into gear. Still, there's no doubt about it, employers are definitely hiring."
"Economic data moves markets.
Three central banks met — the Reserve Bank of India lowered its key interest rate while the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia left their policy interest rates unchanged. Equities were mixed for the week. In Asia, the rising yen (falling U.S. dollar) presented challenges for investors. But in Europe and the U.S., positive economic data sent stock indexes higher. In particular, the higher than anticipated U.S. employment gain of 209,000 (and the unemployment rate down to 4.3 percent) sent European and U.S. equities higher and the U.S. dollar rallied."
Implied rate hike probability for September 20th is ~1.4%, November 1st is ~7.3%; 0% probability of rate cut through June 13th, 2018.
VIX ~10.03. 10-yr treasury volatility (TYVIX) ~3.74.
"US Stocks Edge Higher Following Strong Jobs Data
Wall Street closed modestly in the green on Friday August 4th of 2017, as non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 209K in July of 2017, below an upwardly revised 231K in June but above market expectations of 183 thousand. The Dow Jones gained 67 points or 0.3% to a new record of 22093. The S&P 500 advanced 5 points or 0.2% to 2477. The Nasdaq added 11 points to 6352. During the week, all the Dow Jones climbed 1.2% and the S&P 500 inched up 0.2%. In contrast, the Nasdaq declined 0.4%.
Dollar Jumps 0.7% as US Job Figures Smash Expectations
The dollar index jumped 0.7% to 93.47 around 10:15 AM New York time, after a strong jobs report raised expectations of an interest rate hike later this year.
Canada Jobless Rate Lowest Since 2008
The unemployment rate in Canada decreased to 6.3 percent in July of 2017 from 6.5 percent in the previous month and better than market expectations of 6.5 percent. It is the lowest jobless rate since October of 2008. The number of unemployed persons fell by 23.5 thousand while employed rose 10.9 thousand, beating market consensus of a 10 thousand increase.
Mexico Private Investment Rebounds in May
Private investment in Mexico increased 2.3 percent year-on-year in May of 2017, recovering from a 8.6 percent decline in the previous month and better than market expectations of a 1.5 percent gain. Investment in machinery recovered sharply by 9.1 percent, after decreasing 6.9 percent in April. Also, construction investment contracted less (-2.2 percent vs -9.6 percent), as investment in residential activity rebounded (1.4 percent vs -5.9 percent) and non-residential one fell at a slower pace (-5.3 percent vs -12.9 percent). On a monthly basis, private investment recovered 2.9 percent compared to a 1.3 percent fall in April.
Stocks in Italy Hit 19-month High
FTSE MIB increased to a 19-month high of 21838.
Russia Inflation Rate Lowest in Nearly 5 Years
Russia's consumer prices increased by 3.9 percent year-on-year in July 2017, easing from a 4.4 percent rise in the previous month and missing market expectations of 4.3 percent. The inflation rate fell below the central bank's 4 percent target for the first time since the bank switched to inflation targeting policy in late 2014, to hit the lowest level since May 2012. Prices increased at a slower pace for food (3.8 percent from 4.9 percent in June) and non-food products (3.7 percent from 4 percent). Month-on-month inflation slowed to 0.1 percent from 0.6 percent in June.
Malaysia Trade Surplus Largest in 15 Months
Malaysia's trade surplus increased sharply to MYR 9.9 billion in June of 2017 from MYR 5.5 billion in the same month of the prior year and beating market estimates of a MYR 5.5 billion surplus. It was the largest trade surplus since March 2016, as exports rose more than imports. Year-on-year, sales increased by 10.0 percent to MYR 73.1 billion, compared to a 32.5 percent gain in May and below estimates of a 15.8 percent growth. Imports went up 3.7 percent to MYR 63.2 billion, following a 30.4 percent rise in the prior month while market expected a 19.0 percent rise. In May 2017, the trade surplus came in at MYR 5.5 billion.
RBA Upbeat on Economic Growth Outlook
Recent indicators point to a pick-up in Australia's GDP growth in the June quarter 2017, the Reserve Bank of Australia's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy showed. GDP growth should continue to recover as the drag from falling mining investment comes to an end and the ramp-up in resource exports continues, it added. Regarding the recent appreciation of the country's exchange rate, policymakers viewed: "it has been factored into the forecasts and has had a modest dampening effect on the forecast for growth." Over the next couple of years, the economy is expected to grow at an annual rate of around three percent, which is a bit higher than estimates of potential growth."
"DHL Supply Chain to roll out 'Vision Picking' smart glasses across the globe.
DHL Supply Chain has successfully completed its global augmented reality pilot and is expanding its “Vision Picking” smart glasses solution in more warehouses around the world.
The international trials have shown an average improvement of productivity by 15% and higher accuracy rates, as well as halving on-boarding and training times."
"Uber Freight, a load-matching app and third-party logistics provider launched in May by the company known for its ride-sharing app, is expanding the geography servied beyond its initial focus on Texas and adding personalized load matching to its instant load booking/fast payment system."
"FourKites and 3GTMS team up for strategic partnership.
Earlier this week, two supply chain and logistics technology providers–FourKites, a provider of real-time tracking and visibility solutions across transportation modes and digital platforms, and 3GTMS, a provider of Tier 1 transportation management software, said they are collaborating “to enhance processes” for 3PLs and shippers.
The companies said this partnership will mesh FourKites’ visibility platform with 3GTMS software. And they explained that with FourKites’ technology used to gather shipment and status and location from more than 4 million GPS/ELD tracking devices and driver cell phones in real-time, coupled with 3GTMS’s technology, this results in its customers receiving shipment visibility capabilities through location and ETA information every 15 minutes, along with things like predictive weather and traffic information in order to assess their impact on travel times."
"Daimler Produces its First 3D-Printed Metal Part.
In Europe, Mercedes-Benz Trucks has printed its first spare part made of metal that has passed all stages of the company’s quality assurance process.
Printing parts that are made of metal could lead to cost-effective, rapid, and flexible production of parts in small batches. Producing metal parts directly from digital records saves money on special tools, storage, and transport costs."
"Financial decisions influenced by intensity of light.
A study of more than 2,500 people provides new evidence about the effects of luminance on the quality and consistency of our financial decision-making.
"On the days with higher light intensity, people made worse decisions and they were more inconsistent in the choices that they made," said Associate Professor Tymula.
Luminance also affected people's risk attitudes."
"Lombard Risk partners with electronic repo platform Elixium
The integrated solution will pair Elixium with Lombard Risk’s flagship collateral management solution, COLLINE.
Collateral management specialist Lombard Risk has teamed up with Elixium, a peer-to-peer electronic repo exchange platform, to enhance collateral processes."
"Brain-Machine Interfaces, Implantables, And Neuroprosthetics: 10 NeuroTech Startups Targeting Your Brain.
The burgeoning field of neurotechnology involves brain-machine interfaces, neuroprosthetics, neurostimulation, neuro-monitoring, and implantable devices intended to not only augment nervous system activity, but enhance its capabilities. One such project is Elon Musk’s Neuralink which is developing, “high bandwidth brain-machine interfaces to connect humans and computers.” And even Facebook has announced plans to create brain-machine interfaces that allow users to type using their thoughts alone."
"Penn State Researchers Find New Solution to Combat Age-old Bedbug Problem.
However, a team of Penn State scientists has developed a potential game-changer in the war against bedbugs — a naturally derived, fungal-based pesticide that uses the bugs’ own natural tendencies to humankind’s advantage."
"Internet of Bees device tracks hive health.
As we all know, the bee population is declining at an alarming rate, and while the causes are many, the solutions are few. At the very least, beekeepers need to keep an extra-close eye on their hives — which can be difficult when there are a few thousand of them. A Canadian researcher is working on a monitoring system that listens to the buzz and passes on word if things are going south."
"Slight Street Sign Modifications Can Completely Fool Machine Learning Algorithms."
"Video Friday: More Boston Dynamics, Giant Fighting Robots, and ANYmal Quadruped.
Video Friday is your weekly selection of awesome robotics videos, collected by your Automaton bloggers."
"‘My China Dream is Moving to the United States’: Chinese Chatbots Censored After Going Off Script."
Startup/SME of the Day.
"MyShake is a free app for Android phones that has the ability to recognize earthquake shaking using the sensors in every smartphone. The app runs “silently” in the background on your phone using very little power – just like the step-tracking fitness apps. When the shaking fits the vibrational profile of an earthquake, the app sends the anonymous information to our central system that confirms the location and magnitude of the quake.
Our goal is to build a worldwide seismic network and use the data to reduce the effects of earthquakes on us as individuals, and our society as a whole. MyShake also provides users with information about recent earthquakes around the world and significant global historical earthquakes."
Sensor data could potentially be trained to detect other anomalous movements like traffic accidents and startling situations.
"Mantua and Sabbioneta.
Mantua and Sabbioneta, in the Po valley, in the north of Italy, represent two aspects of Renaissance town planning: Mantua shows the renewal and extension of an existing city, while 30 km away, Sabbioneta represents the implementation of the period’s theories about planning the ideal city. Typically, Mantua’s layout is irregular with regular parts showing different stages of its growth since the Roman period and includes many medieval edifices among them an 11th century rotunda and a Baroque theatre. Sabbioneta, created in the second half of the 16th century under the rule of one person, Vespasiano Gonzaga Colonna, can be described as a single-period city and has a right angle grid layout. Both cities offer exceptional testimonies to the urban, architectural and artistic realizations of the Renaissance, linked through the visions and actions of the ruling Gonzaga family. The two towns are important for the value of their architecture and for their prominent role in the dissemination of Renaissance culture. The ideals of the Renaissance, fostered by the Gonzaga family, are present in the towns’ morphology and architecture."
"30 Years Of Soccer Transfers: Boy, That Escalated Quickly.
[S]occer club Paris Saint Germain are set to smash the world transfer fee record, buying Neymar Jr. from FC Barcelona for a stupendously expensive €222 million (£198m, $250m)."
DE: Industrial Production, 2:00 AM ET
CH: Consumer Price Index, 3:15 AM ET
GB: Halifax HPI, 3:30 AM ET
US: Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure, 8:30 AM ET
US: Labor Market Conditions Index, 10:00 AM ET
US: TD Ameritrade IMX, 12:30 PM ET
US: Consumer Credit, 3:00 PM ET
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar (More complete listing, including consensus)