Random Market News, 27 July
"At 50, ASEAN is reaping the rewards of economic integration.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations marks its 50th anniversary on Aug. 8. Over the decades, its purpose has shifted from fighting communism to fostering economic cooperation. ASEAN's rules and infrastructure facilitate trade and help companies widen their value chains. We look at the latest developments in "ASEAN-style management" to understand the dynamism of the region and its challenges."
German Finance Minister Open to Deeper Euro-Zone Integration.
Wolfgang Schäuble, in a Handelsblatt interview, says Germany is ready to work with France to strengthen the EU and will push for more global cooperation at the G20 summit.
This could take the form of all the EU members working in concert, just the euro zone, or a small coalition of the willing depending on the issue being discussed."
"New US Russia sanctions bill risks EU ire.
The Russian bill has also raised concern with the European Union because it could result in fines and other measures against companies involved in the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project or other joint energy projects. It would also limit the access of European energy firms to US banks."
"All the companies in Jeff Bezos’s empire, in one (large) chart."
"The Hijacking of the Brillante Virtuoso.
With a top speed of less than 13 knots and stretching 300 yards from bow to rusting stern, the black-hulled Brillante was plodding into the world’s most dangerous shipping lane with a cargo worth $100 million.
It was July 2011, and the threat of Somali piracy in the Gulf of Aden had never been more severe."
And a first-hand account about life among pirates.
"Wealthy Families Invest Less in Buyout Funds to Do Own Deals.
Family offices are doing their own buyout deals to avoid fees charged by private-equity firms.
Eighty-one percent of family offices have at least one person working on direct investments, according to a survey by Family Office Exchange that was released in May. The consulting firm found that 57 percent of the 118 family offices surveyed plan to increase such investments this year."
"Public funds boosting real assets commitments – eVestment.
More U.S. public pension plans are favoring private equity and real assets as commitment activity increased in the second quarter, according to a survey from eVestment.
There were 85 and 68 commitments, respectively, to real assets and private equity funds in the second quarter. Coming in at a distant third was private debt at 29, followed by equities at 28; fixed income, hedge funds and multiasset strategies at 11 each; and private equity funds of funds, 2...
It is the fourth straight quarter that saw real assets and private equity funds lead the way."
Implied rate hike probability for September 20th is ~0.0%, November 1st is ~2.0%; 0% probability of rate cut through June 13th, 2018.
VIX ~10.11. 10-yr treasury vol (TYVIX) ~3.89.
"US Stocks Close Mixed On Thursday
Wall Street closed mixed on Thursday July 27th of 2017, as the US dollar rebounded and volatility spiked amid mixed corporate earnings. Facebook (+2.9%) hit a new fresh record, Verizon (+7.7) reached an 8-year high, and Twitter (-14.1%) plunged after a disappointing quarter of no user growth. The Dow Jones gained 86 points or 0.4% to a new record of 21797. Contrastingly, the S&P 500 edged down 2 points or 0.1% to 2475 and the Nasdaq retreated 41 points or 0.6% to 6382.
US Durable Goods Orders Rise the Most in 3 Years
New orders for US manufactured durable goods jumped 6.5 percent month-over-month in June of 2017, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in May and beating market expectations of a 3 percent rise. It is the biggest gain since July of 2014, boosted by a 131.2 percent surge in orders for civilian aircraft. However, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, seen as a proxy for business spending plans decreased 0.1 percent, following an upwardly revised 0.7 percent rise in May and the first drop since December.
US Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased by 10 thousand to 244 thousand in the week ended July 22nd from the previous week's revised level of 234 thousand and above market expectations of 241 thousand. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, was unchanged at 244 thousand.
Eurozone Household Lending Rises Less Than Expected
Loans to households in the Euro Area increased by 2.6 percent year-on-year to EUR 5.80 trillion in June 2017, the same pace as in the previous month and below market expectations of 2.7 percent. It remained the sharpest rise in household lending since March 2009. Also, credit to non-financial corporations went up 2.1 percent to EUR 4.31 trillion, easing from a 2.5 percent rise in the previous month. Private sector credit growth including households and non-financial corporations decreased to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent in May.
United Kingdom Consumer Confidence Falls Further In July
Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom fell to -12 in July of 2017 from -10 in June, worse than market expectations of -11. It is the lowest value in 12 months as the component of general economic situation of the last 12 months worsened to -31 (vs -25) and forward general economic situation fell to -28 (from -23). The only component showing advance was personal financial situation over next 12 months, which improved to 2 from 0.
Japan Inflation Rate Steady For 3rd Month At 0.4%
Consumer prices in Japan rose 0.4 percent year-on-year in June of 2017, the same as in the prior two months and matching market consensus. Food inflation was steady while cost of transport and housing declined. Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, went up 0.4 percent on the year, unchanged from the preceding month's reading and in line with market estimates. The figure remained at its highest level since March of 2015. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, the same as in a month earlier.
Thailand Jobless Rate Edges Up To 1.1% in June
The unemployment rate in Thailand rose to 1.1 percent in June of 2017 from 1.0 percent in the same month a year earlier. The number of unemployed persons increased by 23 thousand from a year earlier to 414.9 thousand while employed persons was up by 152 thousand to 38,319 thousand. In May 2017, the jobless rate came in at 1.3 percent.
South Korea Industrial Production Falls 0.3% YoY In June
Industrial production in South Korea declined 0.3 percent year-on-year in June of 2017, following an upwardly revised 0.2 percent increase in May. Manufacturing output decreased 0.4 percent in May after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. On a monthly basis, industrial production edged down 0.2 percent after climbing 0.2 percent in May, with manufacturing falling 0.3 percent after rising 0.2 percent.
Australia Producer Prices Rise Less Than Expected In Q2
The final demand producer price index in Australia went up 0.5 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2017, the same as in the previous three months and below market consensus of a 0.6 percent gain. The print was mainly driven by a rise in prices received for heavy & civil engineering construction (+0.9%); building construction (+0.8%); and other agriculture (+7.4%). In contrast, prices received fell for: petroleum refining & petroleum fuel manufacturing (-4.8%); accommodation (-2.4%); and commercial fishing (-7.6%). Through the year to June 2017, producer prices went up 1.7 percent, compared to a 1.3 percent increase in Q1 2017.
Brazil Lending Rises the Most in 1-1/2-year
The value of loans in Brazil increased 0.4 percent month-over-month to BRL 3078 billion in June of 2017, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in the previous month. It is the biggest loan growth since December of 2015 as lending to companies went up 0.3 percent to BRL 1482.8 billion and lending to households rose 0.5 percent to BRL 1595 billion. Year-on-year, loans decreased 1.6 percent.
Stocks in Chile Hit All-time High
IGPA increased to an all-time high of 25203.
Stocks in Kazakhstan Hit 6-year High
KASE increased to a 6-year high of 1797.
Stocks in South Africa Hit 26-month High
JALSH-All Share increased to a 26-month high of 55013.
Stocks in Singapore Hit 24-month High
STI increased to a 24-month high of 3353."
"Orders for newbuild ocean vessels have slipped during the first half of 2017, despite orders for bulkers and tankers rising during the period, according to newly-released data from ship valuation service VesselsValue."
"Samskip acquires Nor Lines.
SAMSKIP has announced that it has reached an agreement with the DSD Group to acquire struggling shortsea operator Nor Lines, as it continues efforts to expand its Norwegian presence.
Samskip, currently moving about 90,000 teu annually between Norway and northern Europe, added that the combined annual turnover after the Nor Lines takeover would help it to achieve its ambition of becoming a major market player."
World TEU volume was ~127.6mm in 2014 (latest from World Shipping Council).
"European freight forwarding and logistics giant DB Schenker posted strong volume and revenue growth in its forwarding division in the first half of the year, figures released by parent company Deutsche Bahn (DB) show.
Air freight traffic was up 11.4% on the corresponding period last year at 613,100 tonnes while ocean freight traffic increased by 8.9% at just over 1.06 million TEU.
The buoyant performance by the air and ocean unit reflected growth across the board at DB Schenker, with the contract logistics division posting a 6.8% increase in revenue to €1.3 million while EBIT was up more than 30% to €56 million."
"Cargo volumes at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol grew 8.7% in the first half of this year to a record 866,000 tonnes, thanks to strong traffic growth from Asia and Latin America and “community initiatives” to encourage growth in pharma and e-commerce traffic through Europe’s third-busiest air freight hub."
"UPS reports second quarter earnings gains.
Quarterly revenue for the Atlanta-based transportation and logistics bellwether at $15.7 billion was up 7.7% annually, and earnings per share at $1.58 was up 11% compared to last year and ahead of Wall Street estimates of $1.46. Operating profit was up 8.7% at $2.2 billion."
"Dry bulk: Black Sea grains season reduces tonnage supply, pushes up freight rates.
The Black Sea grains export season is heating up, adding extra long-haul demand for both Panamax and Supramax vessels in the Atlantic and giving freight rates yet another boost.
An early flux of grain cargoes has been moved from the Black Sea towards the Far East, with Panamax freight rates averaging $22,000/day on a time-charter basis, up $5,000 from June dates.
After a few months of quiet, the Black Sea region woke up to a fruitful 2017-2018 marketing year for grains, estimated to reach 38.31 million mt of exported goods, USDA data showed."
"Growing trend of cargo owners, refiners offering scrubbers to shipowners.
The Asian market has seen a growing trend of scrubbers being offered to shipowners at no outright cost, with both refiners and cargo owners making the offer to shipowners, said market sources this week.
The trend in particular, has been fairly widespread in Northeast Asia, especially Japan and South Korea, sources added.
This comes 2.5 years ahead of the International Maritime Organization's mandate that all vessels in 2020 would have to comply with a 0.5% global sulfur cap for the marine industry, from 3.5% currently."
"Advanced Manufacturing Begins To Recover From Slump.
Advanced manufacturing―which encompasses technologies that facilitate more efficient, customizable, automated, or digitized processes for manufacturers and their related supply chain―has matured into a sector that received more than $3B in funding in 2016. While related to the Industrial IoT category, advanced manufacturing also includes robotics, SaaS, and technologies tailored for manufacturing entities."
"Amazon launches ‘The Hub’, parcel delivery lockers for apartment buildings.
Today, Amazon quietly unveiled a new service called The Hub, lockers designed to be installed in multi-tenant dwellings so that residents can receive bulky packages and pick them up at flexible times. Key to the service is that Amazon is offering it as a delivery option for packages from anyone, not just Amazon and its affiliates."
"Google’s cord cutter app YouTube TV reaches 2 million downloads.
Approximately 2 million people have installed the YouTube TV app, Google’s live TV service aimed at a younger generation of cord cutters, as well as those who never signed up for traditional pay TV in the first place."
"Big Data Model Predicts Power Outages Caused by Fallen Trees.
Falling trees are the main driver of power outages in major storms. For instance, more than 1 million people in New Jersey lost power during the historic 2012 Hurricane Sandy that knocked branches, limbs, and entire trunks atop delicate and crucial connections. Since then, trimming has become a major undertaking to prevent similar widespread outages."
"Sticky when wet: Strong adhesive for wound healing.
A new, flexible adhesive material inspired by the glue secreted by slugs adheres to biological tissues (even when wet) without causing toxicity, and can be formed into either sheets (teal blue) or custom shapes (dark blue)."
"Crops that Kill Pests by Shutting off their Genes.
Plants are among many eukaryotes that can "turn off" one or more of their genes by using a process called RNA interference to block protein translation. Researchers are now weaponizing this by engineering crops to produce specific RNA fragments that, upon ingestion by insects, initiate RNA interference to shut down a target gene essential for life or reproduction, killing or sterilizing the insects."
"From Space, Bolivia’s Salt Flats Look Like a Glitch.
Salar de Uyuni is the world’s largest salt flat, covering about 4,000 square miles—bigger than the state of Delaware—in southwestern Bolivia. Formed when a series of prehistoric lakes dried up, the flat white surface contains as much as 70 percent of the world’s lithium reserves. The evaporating pools help separate the valuable metal from magnesium and sodium salts for use in everything from batteries and ceramics to aircraft parts and pharmaceuticals. Bolivia’s lithium reserves are the largest in the world, but production of finished compounds still lags behind Australia, Chile, and Argentina."
FR: GDP Flash, 1:30 AM ET
GB: Nationwide HPI, 2:00 AM ET
FR: Consumer Mfgd Goods Consumption, 2:45 AM ET
FR: CPI, 2:45 AM ET
CH: KOF Swiss Leading Indicator, 3:00 AM ET
EZ: EC Economic Sentiment, 5:00 AM ET
DE: CPI, 8:00 AM ET
US: GDP, 8:30 AM ET
US: Employment Cost Index, 8:30 AM ET
CA: Monthly GDP, 8:30 AM ET
US: Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 AM ET
US: Baker-Hughes Rig Count, 1:00 PM ET
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar (More complete listing, including consensus)